ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE Bill Murray - LOST IN TRANSLATION
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE Tim Robbins - MYSTIC RIVER
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE Charlize Theron - MONSTER (I hate doing the obvious thing, but what can you do?)
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE Renée Zellweger - COLD MOUNTAIN
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM FINDING NEMO
DIRECTING LOST IN TRANSLATION (A super-long shot, and one I'll probably regret, but this movie feels like this year's Pianist - respected and loved, but incapable of beating the frontrunner in the big race. Plus, it had a damn clear vision. I have to respect that.)
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE CAPTURING THE FRIEDMANS
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM ELARY (Holocaust rule applies)
BEST PICTURE THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING (Fingers crossed, anyway).
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY) MYSTIC RIVER
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY) LOST IN TRANSLATION
The most success I ever had with Oscar predictions was the year I did the worst case scenario picks. These aren't quite so pessimistic, and thus I'm gonna foul up somewhat. One thing to rely on in this world -- the Academy and I never, ever agree.